Regional Water Supply Plan Shows Long-Term Shortfall

By Desiree Parker Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Water demand in the Historic Triangle area and vicinity will likely outstrip supply around the year 2040, according to a new regional water supply plan.

The York-James Peninsula includes James City County, York County, and the Cities of Hampton, Newport News, Poquoson, and Williamsburg. Based on current trends, demand will exceed supply in 2041 under average conditions. By 2050, the water supply plan estimates a shortage of about 6 million gallons per day (which could be up to 21 million gallons per day under extreme conditions).

James City County Service Authority general manager Larry Foster says the projected shortage is something the region will need to plan for over the coming years. “I expect we will pursue this regionally, and gather and evaluate what is the cost effective and environmentally safe way to provide the water needed," he said. "We’ve been proactive and we have time to handle any projected shortfall.”

Leaders in the area haven’t yet started planning for the shortfall, Foster says, but he expects serious discussion to begin within the next several years.

“Hampton Roads localities are pursuing programs and projects to meet long-term needs while providing interim and drought-related solutions,” the plan says. “Incorporating water demand management practices both in the long and short term is a necessary component to extend the useful life of the regional water supply.

“Long-term water demand management is practiced through more efficient water use, water conservation, and reductions in water loss.”

Foster says James City County has been successful at reducing water use through increasing the water rate based on use, allowing yard irrigation on an alternating cycle based on address, and starting a water conservation rebate program, among other tactics.

The regional plan also lays out several options for finding new sources of water for the York-James Peninsula. Ideas include desalination, water re-use, and purchasing water from neighbors with a water surplus on top of water conservation efforts.

Desalination of brackish surface water can cost between $5 to $8 per gallon for initial capital outlay and then $3 to $5 per thousand gallons for continuing operational costs, according to the plan. Conventional water treatment plants cost about $3 to $5 per gallon in capital outlay, and then $2 to $4 per thousand gallons for operational costs.

Foster says he expects in the future desalination will be the best option for the region, but that all options need to be examined.

Western Tidewater and the Southside are likely to have about eight million gallons per day of extra water supply in 2050, according to the plan. The extra water could be used by the York-James Peninsula area, but it would be tough to move the water across the James River.

Foster agrees that this could be a challenge, and points out that “they need to be willing to provide us with the water, too.”

Both James City County and Williamsburg have already paid millions to Newport News Waterworks to supply extra water to the area.

The county agreed to pay $25 million to secure about 4 million extra gallons of water a day starting as early as 2011, though the infrastructure to get the water to the county hasn’t yet been created. The county will pay an additional $25 million later.

The water supply plan takes into account these current water agreements.

Water reuse is another option that can decrease water demand, according to the plan. Water reuse entails treating wastewater and using this water to wash cars or for irrigation and industrial use, among other possible uses.

The plan also warns that the Department of Environmental Quality, which grants permits for areas such as James City County that draw on underground water, doesn’t have to continue to allow the same withdrawal amounts in the future due to diminishing water supply.

“Through the permit renewal process, DEQ has required many permit holders to reduce their withdrawal limits due to low water level measurements in these areas, and simulated decreasing groundwater levels in the future,” the plan says.

“There is no guarantee that the same amount (or greater amount) of groundwater will be available to publicly owned [community water system] in 20 to 30 years.”

When underground water is drawn out, surrounding clay layers shrink and compress. This causes the ground to settle, but also allows for less water to be stored and available; imagine the water retention of a compressed sponge versus an uncompressed sponge.

Climate changes could result in increases or decreases in regional water supplies, too, the plan indicates. Long-term planning can be affected by changing temperature, rain and sea-level rise.

“Management of water resources is a primary tool for sustaining Virginia’s people, environment, economy, and lifestyle,” the plan concludes. “Alternatives should be developed not only to meet future water demands, but also to help ensure the long-term viability of groundwater aquifers and watershed areas.”

The HRPDC will meet Wednesday to discuss and adopt the regional water supply plan. The next step in the process is for the plan to be distributed to all the localities in the region, each of which will hold public hearings on the plan before accepting it.

The plan will go to the state in November.

View the entire plan on the HRPDC website.