Curtain Rises on General Assembly, Gov's $85 Billion Budget

By Hannah Hess and Bill McMorris, Virginia Statehouse News Tuesday, January 10, 2012

RICHMOND - The fastest 60 days in politics begin here Wednesday, and political players on both sides of the aisle are preparing for what could be a make-or-break session for Gov. Bob McDonnell.

The 2012 session will be the most important yet for McDonnell, as he sets out to pass his first and only two-year budget and navigate Virginia through a potential $1.5 billion budget deficit. But his $85 billion proposal, which dramatically increases spending on transportation and the state retirement system, may take a backseat to a procedural dispute with wide-reaching implications for the state.

Democrats and Republicans are deadlocked at 20 in the state Senate after the GOP gained two seats in the November election.

Republicans plan to use Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling to cast the tie-breaking vote in determining committee assignments. Democrats have challenged the ruling in Richmond Circuit Court to prevent that from happening. A ruling in the GOP's favor would give the party control of the General Assembly and the governor's mansion for just the second time since Reconstruction.

State Sen. Charles Colgan, D-Manassas, said he hopes to settle the dispute out of court by organizing a power-sharing agreement.

"I'd like to see the lieutenant governor and the Republicans work out a compromise with us," he said. "If we don't like our chances in court, then we are going to do everything in our power to bring them to the table."

Colgan, who last session chaired the Senate Finance Committee, knows just how powerful a committee can be. In 2011, Democrats were able to table and kill some of McDonnell's most-prized initiatives, including his attempts to privatize state liquor stores and to steer the state pension system into a 401(k)-style program. Losing the gavel may prove a death knell for Democrats' power.

"Those committee chairmanships are very important; you can bottle up bills and you have resources that are not available to you otherwise," George Mason University professor Michael McDonald said. "The legislators will always have their say, but the committees will make it easier for (Republicans)."

Republicans confident in their Senate majority, including newly elected Sen. Dick Black, R-Loudoun County, are predicting a tamer legislative session than in past years. Black said the 2011 elections put to rest the old partisan fight over whether tax increases or spending cuts should be used to plug deficits.

"I don't think we're going to have huge battles over the size of the pie; the battles will be over how the pie is sliced," he said. "You don't hear anyone out there, even Democrats, calling for big tax increases; the focus has changed."

McDonnell called for substantial cuts to Virginia's departments and agencies, as well as $800 million in cuts centered on growing Medicaid costs, public school education and other services to eliminate the deficit. He has ordered each state department to prepare cuts of 2 percent, 4 percent and 6 percent in preparation for budget gaps. He expects the General Assembly to take those cuts even farther.

"We've already taken those 2, 4 and 6 plans in, reviewed those recommendations and I've included about $80 (million) to $90 million of those recommendations in the budget that I introduced last month," McDonnell said. "If the legislators want to find some additional savings, we still have some of those things that I did not approve that they can certainly consider."

Colgan praised the governor's handling of the state in his first two years, but said he would like to reverse some of the cuts to public education.

"He may want to help us out a little if he wants bipartisan support and he can start that with education," he said. "Education is very important, and we need the governor to give it a boost."

Black said the $438 million that McDonnell budgeted for schools was more than enough.

"There are those in the education establishment who say we need some more resources, and I would say in a time of belt tightening you cannot get everything all at once with a limited amount of revenue," he said.

Republicans are quick to praise the governor's decision to make record contributions to the Virginia Retirement System — $2.2 billion over two years — and $100 million for state colleges. But Black said the governor has pursued the right course in more than just his spending priorities.

"The governor has focused on the major issues, recognizing our limited session," he said. "We're going to have a fairly clear vision of where the governor wants to go."

By focusing on the "major issues," as Black said, McDonnell has allowed conservatives in the General Assembly to carry the torch on more issues dear to the base, including gun-control, abortion and school prayer.

Republicans pushed through abortion restrictions last year, thanks to a tie-breaking vote from Bolling, but several proposals to expand gun rights and education reforms such as school choice died in the Senate.

Black, a staunch social conservative, said he would not be surprised to see issues such as House Bill 1, a proposal that would virtually eliminate abortions by classifying all fertilized eggs as human beings, attract mass media attention during session.

"There has always been a struggle over social issues, and this year there may be some additional advances on what there has been in the past regarding the abortion industry and Second Amendment rights," he said.

McDonald said the governor is smart to stay above the fray.

"The budget is what state governments do. Sure, there's social issues, but bickering over potholes is the most important issue there is," McDonald said.

Newly elected Republicans in the General Assembly may not be so lucky.

"Every party in history has over-reached … Republicans will claim they have a mandate, govern accordingly and we'll have to see in two years what the voters think about that," he said.